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A Russian drone that never was explodes in Romania. What sounds like a plot summary for a play by Eugene Ionesco, the Romanian-born French absurdist playwright, is current Romanian reality.
On Sunday night, Russia once again deployed kamikaze drones to bombard the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmail. One of these drones exploded on the far bank of river Danube, on the territory of NATO member Romania.
Videos posted to social media and released by the Ukrainian authorities showed the fireball of a detonation. The Romanian government, however, categorically denied the incident on Monday.
Two days later, however, during the Three Seas summit in Bucharest, Romania’s Defense Ministry said that parts of what may be a Russian drone “fell” on Romanian territory.
First incident of its kind
In May, it became known that a Russian missile had landed in a Polish forest late last year, albeit without a warhead. Also in 2022, two people were killed when a misfired Ukrainian air defense missile came down in Poland.
This, however, is the first time since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine that a Russian drone has come down in a NATO country during an attack on Ukrainian territory.
Is Russia testing NATO’s resolve?
It is apparently a risk Russia is willing to take as it has for weeks been bombarding Ukrainian Danube ports, which are situated only a few hundred meters from the Romanian border, which runs down the middle of the river. The Romanian bank of the Danube, for example, is only about 400 meters (437 yards) from Izmail.
It cannot be ruled out that Russia intentionally hit the Romanian bank of the river to see how Romania and NATO would react.
Locals reported low-flying Russian drones
What happened on the Ukrainian/Romanian border was foreseeable given that Russia has been bombarding the three Danube ports of Reni, Izmail and Kilija almost daily since the end of July.
According to Romanian media reports, locals have been complaining for quite some time that drones often fly very low over Romanian territory, but that the Romanian authorities have not been taking their complaints seriously.
This makes the reaction of the Romanian state all the more astonishing.
Swift denial from Bucharest
When Russia first attacked its neighbor’s ports in late July, Romania issued a strong condemnation. Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem to have stepped up its military protection of its side of the river, for example by installing air defense systems in the vicinity.
When a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday that a drone had fallen and detonated on Romanian territory, Romania swiftly and categorically rejected the claim. President Klaus Iohannis said: “I can tell you no piece, no drone and no part of a device landed in Romania.”
Claim and counterclaim followed from Kyiv and Bucharest. It appeared to some that Romania was subtly accusing Ukraine of trying to drag its neighbor into a war.
Romania’s staunch support for Ukraine
This is all the more surprising considering that Romania has so far been steadfast in its support for Ukraine and has not been afraid to take risks in the process.
For example, Romania allows cargo ships from the Odessa region to sail through Romanian Black Sea territorial waters on their way to the Bosporus. Four ships have done just that in recent weeks, even though Russia has said that it considers any ships leaving Ukrainian ports to be “legitimate targets.”
Then on Wednesday, both the Romanian Defense Ministry and the President made a U-turn. “If it is confirmed that the components belong to a Russian drone, such a situation would be inadmissible and a serious violation of Romania’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Iohannis said after the Defense Ministry confirmed that drone parts had been found on Romanian territory.
Inconsistencies and unanswered questions
Several things remain unclear: Did or did not the Romanian air defense system pick up the exploded drone or other approaching drones? If it did, why were the drones not shot down over Romanian territory by the Romanian air defense system? And why did Bucharest reject the information from Ukraine so categorically without having properly investigated the claim?
By the time of publication, DW had not received a reply from the Romanian Defense Ministry to these questions.
People in Romania are concerned and angered by the situation and above all by the fact that a number of inconsistencies have gradually come to light. For instance, Romanian military investigators told the media that the drone had not been carrying explosives and may only have been a spy drone.
On Thursday, however, journalists from the Digi24 television channel discovered near the Romanian village of Plauru, which is across the river from the Ukrainian port of Izmail, drone debris and a crater, which might suggest the presence of explosives. The point of impact had neither been secured nor sealed off.
‘Contradictory stammerings’
Writing on the G4media portal, journalist and writer Dan Tapalaga called the way the state has dealt with the incident a “firework of incompetence.” His colleague Ioana Ene Dogioiu from the Spotmedia portal even went as far as to call Romania a “failed state.”
Bucharest-based political scientist and Russia expert Armand Gosu told DW that the Romanian state has shown a major lack of professionalism in this case. “The contradictory stammerings of the authorities create a very bad impression both at diplomatic level and within the Romanian population,” he said. “It’s as if the state wants to close its eyes and not know exactly what’s going on.”
The question now, he added, is what has to happen for Romania to take action: “Are we going to see drones coming down on major cities such as Galati or Tulcea in the near future?” he asked.
Gosu said that Romania must make it unmistakably clear to Russia that incidents such as this will not be tolerated and must act accordingly, for example by stationing an effective air defense system in the region.
At present, however, it looks as if both Romania and NATO want to play down the incident. “We don’t have any information indicating an intentional attack by Russia, and we are awaiting the outcome of the ongoing investigation,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.
This article was originally published in German.
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