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US President Joe Biden has vowed to support Ukraine “as long as necessary.” This was echoed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and also stated in the final communiqué of the recent NATO summit.
But since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, a new international crisis has evolved, distracting the attention of the world public. And the conflict in the Middle East could tie up the resources of those who are particularly supportive of Ukraine, for example, the United States.
This would benefit Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently urged NATO countries not to slacken their support, saying Russia would try to exploit the situation in the Middle East.
The United States could certainly deal with both crises simultaneously, was Biden’s response to one journalist’s question, adding: “If we don’t do it, who will?” Biden, however, is at loggerheads with Republicans at home who want to cut aid for Ukraine. With the current chaos in Congress, no more fresh money is finding its way to Ukraine for now anyway.
However, the tide had turned in the US regarding Ukraine support well before the recent Middle East crisis erupted, believes political scientist Johannes Varwick of the University of Halle. There is “competition for attention and resources. I don’t think major players will stop supporting Ukraine now, but priorities will shift,” he told DW.
Support is crumbling in Europe, too
Solidarity with Ukraine is also waning in Europe. The Polish government temporarily threatened to halt weapons deliveries out of anger over cheap Ukrainian grain imports. Slovakia, until now also a big Ukraine supporter, recently saw the election victory of Robert Fico who vowed during his campaign that under his leadership Slovakia would supply “not one shot of ammunition” to Ukraine, while calling for better relations with Russia. Hungary never went along with the EU’s Russia sanctions and continues to buy Russian gas. Prime Minister Viktor Orban is also actively trying to thwart further EU financial aid to Ukraine.
In the West as a whole, “support for Ukraine has already waned, cohesion is crumbling, voices are growing louder calling for a ‘dictatorship peace,'” defense policy expert and conservative lawmaker Roderich Kiesewetter told DW. And Roman Goncharenko of
Deutsche Welle’s Ukrainian desk also recently told DW’s “To the Point” program: “There is disillusionment in Ukraine that the West has grown tired.”
Is a Ukrainian military victory possible?
Western weapons deliveries have enabled Ukraine to repeatedly achieve limited military success in its counteroffensives, but a breakthrough has so far failed to materialize.
Once again, President Zelenskyy is asking for weapons from the West such as combat aircraft. From Germany, he wants Taurus cruise missiles. But Chancellor Scholz is unwilling to supply them. And a majority of 55% of Germans surveyed by pollster YouGov recently support his decision.
But the constant hesitation is precisely the problem, Kiesewetter believes: “The liberation offensive is being hampered by the West itself because too little is being delivered too late,” he argued. “A sufficient quantity of superior and precise weapons like Taurus could turn the tide.”
Russia hopes Trump for a return of Trump
The Kremlin, meanwhile, is playing for time, hoping Donald Trump will win the US presidential election in 2024 and that this will spell an end to US support for Ukraine.
For the Europeans to make up for this loss “it’s simply not possible in terms of scale,” says Johannes Varwick, pointing out that the US has provided nearly 50 billion euros ($52.8 billion) in military aid alone, while Germany, the second most important supporter, has provided about €12 billion.
“If the US stops or massively reduces its support, Ukraine will have a problem that cannot be absorbed by Europeans.” EU foreign affairs envoy Josep Borrell admitted.
Ukraine rejects land for peace deal
War fatigue in the West is putting pressure on politicians and diplomats seeking an end to the war through negotiations. Political scientist Johannes Varwick believes a negotiated peace is inevitable anyway. In the process, he says, there must also be negotiations “about territorial changes in Ukraine, about Ukraine’s neutrality.” “All this belongs on the table today rather than tomorrow. In fact, it should have happened yesterday. But now is the time to launch such initiatives.”
However, according to DW’s Roman Goncharenko, a solution based on the “land for peace” formula would have no chance of being accepted in Ukraine: “Too much has happened, the suffering has been too great. That would be a reward for Russia.”
This article was originally written in German.
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