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Mohamed Muiz scored over 54% of the votes in last week’s Maldivian presidential runoff, raising the geopolitical stakes for India as the Maldives could see a pivot towards Beijing.
The Maldivian president-elect will take the oath of office on November 17, and his first term will likely see a shift in both domestic governance and foreign policy in the Indian Ocean archipelago state.
Why is the Maldives important for India and China?
More importantly, Muiz’s win is likely to force the governments in New Delhi and Beijing to prepare for a new chapter in their diplomatic ties with the Maldives.
A certain amount of unease felt in New Delhi was primarily prompted by Muiz’s People’s National Congress, and its coalition partner, the Progressive Party of Maldives, which ran on an “India out” platform.
India, which is home to many Maldivians, considers the Maldives to be located in its area of influence — while China included the island nation as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during the 2013–2018 rule of former Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen.
Muiz has promised to remove Indian troops from the Maldives and balance the country’s trade relations, which he said were heavily in India’s favor.
This was in sharp contrast to incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih — a known India acolyte — who had committed the Maldives to an “India First” approach and called New Delhi as the first responder in times of crises.
Following Muiz’s election, Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said that both countries needed to work closely on regional security challenges.
“All I would say … the focus of our partnership with the Maldives has always been on capacity building and working together to address our shared challenges and priorities, including security challenges and priorities,” said Bagchi.
China has been undertaking infrastructure projects and making significant economic investments in the Indian Ocean region as part of its BRI.
The initiative will enable China to oversee the construction of new roads, ports and pipelines that will run through 65 countries and the Maldives’ strategic maritime location adjacent to routes used for China’s energy supplies will benefit Beijing.
Meanwhile, former diplomats and academics pointed out that India’s financial help to Maldives has been generous over the years and it has been working on some important infrastructure projects.
In November last year, India handed the Maldives US$100 million (€94.6 million) to ease financial challenges faced by the archipelagic state.
India-China rivalry
Muiz’s election victory suggests an intensification of the India-China rivalry in south Asia, according to Srikanth Kondapalli, the dean of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies.
“During his presidency, Yameen cultivated close ties with China and adopted an anti-India stance,” said Kondapalli, who questioned whether Muiz would maintain his ‘India Out’ policy.
“Muiz will have to balance several interests and, more significantly, provide stable governance,” Kondapalli told DW.
While some Indian troops may be withdrawn as a symbolic victory for Muiz, New Delhi will have to maintain its engagement with the new administration and ensure that its interests are not compromised by China’s increasing clout in the Maldives.
P Sahadevan, a professor of South Asian Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, said the new Maldivian presidency would prioritize its foreign policy and secutiry relationship with India — while also allowing for economic engagement with China.
“It is not a zero-sum game. Muiz is unlikely to pursue a policy that alienates New Delhi as the stakes are high. India is an important trade partner relative to China and ‘India Out’ policy looked more a political gambit meant to get votes than a policy intention,” Sahadevan told DW.
“I think it is being blown of proportions and there will be restraint,” he added.
However, former Indian ambassador Anil Wadhwa, who has been chronicling Muiz’s election, sounded a note of caution.
Wadhwa pointed out that the change of leadership in the Maldives will pose challenges for India since Muiz won the presidency on an ‘India out’ platform.
“He will likely follow Abdulla Yameen’s policies. However, India has gained a lot of foothold in Maldives over the past few years when Solih was in power,” Wadhwa told DW.
Edited by: Keith Walker
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